tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272054900018746845.post184985199677539603..comments2024-01-01T17:21:52.555+00:00Comments on Is the BBC biased?: Bias, bias, biasCraighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08741318067991857821noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272054900018746845.post-40729034089428178882019-10-19T10:24:32.782+01:002019-10-19T10:24:32.782+01:00GDP is a very, very poor measure of prosperity. Fo...GDP is a very, very poor measure of prosperity. For instance, these forecasts of GDP don't take account of a number of issues: <br /><br />1. How much of that GDP stays in the country. The Republic of Ireland has a huge GDP per person but much of that just passes through Ireland on its way to company HQs around the world (because of their low corporation tax). <br /><br />2. How much of your GDP is going to non UK citizens. If your economy becomes a job creation scheme for citizens from other countries your own populace is not necessarily benefitting. That seems to be what has been happening in many parts of the UK. <br /><br />3. How much of predicted GDP growth is due to immigration or migration-related population growth (a huge amount of ours has been...it's not difficult to grow your GDP if you let in additional millions every decade). <br /><br />4. How equally your GDP is distributed among your citizens. If your GDP growth is a lot to do with attracting millionaires and billionaires from overseas to come and live in your country for much of the year (again, that's our economy) then a lot of that GDP is being concentrated in a few hands, so it can be a misleading figure. <br /><br />5. Disposable income. What most people care about is their disposable income ie the opportunity to spend their money on things they wish to spend them on: cars, holidays, TV subscruptions,meals out, latest gadgets, education, health , movies, day trips, gym membership and so on. GDP tells you little about that. I don't myself count housing costs as part of disposable income, but the government does, I believe. <br /><br />6. It can be hard to get to the nub of what "disposable income" is. You can have a high GDP country with relatively little disposable income because taxes are high, and there are numerous charges for various government services and you are maybe sending £10 billion to some superstate project! <br /><br />7. Growth in GDP does not translate to personal prosperity if there is an excessive rise in asset prices and the average person ends up paying an excessive amount for housing. This is precisely what has happened in the UK. Due to mass immigration and consequent population growth, people now pay much more of their income on housing (including a lot of hidden housing costs like home insurance). <br /><br />8. If you have a high proportion of recent migrants in your country (as we do) they send a significant amount of your GDP "home" as remittances. <br /><br />9. Tourism and a large business visitor population (UK again) also can distort your GDP totals, giving a false impression of prosperity among the general population. Monkey Brainsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272054900018746845.post-49432665133329329982019-10-19T09:59:05.389+01:002019-10-19T09:59:05.389+01:00My comment from the Open Thread:
Ben Chu on Newsn...My comment from the Open Thread:<br /><br />Ben Chu on Newsnight with a big Fake News item: referencing Treasury forecasts re Brexit as fact. No mention of the very real fact that the Treasury forecast an immediate recession in the event of a Brexit vote that never materialised - instead, we got richer as an economy.<br /><br />Of course there are no official forecasts for the current deal so Chu reached for the forecasts of the "non-partisan" UK in a Changing Europe.<br /><br />How they've managed to undertake a complex analysis of the economic effects of the deal when (a) it was only published a couple of days ago and (b) we've no idea what if any Free Trade Agreement with the EU will emerge at the end of it, Chu didn't enlighten us.<br /><br />A senior fellow of this "non-partisan" agency is Jonathan Portes - one of the geniuses who predicted that the impact of immigration from Poland and Romania would be small. He is now a tireless and relentless advocate for mass immigration, which according to him brings unalloyed joy and prosperity to those countries that experience it. Monkey Brainsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3272054900018746845.post-72431964032948587102019-10-19T07:15:28.685+01:002019-10-19T07:15:28.685+01:00Invariably Remainers dredge up worst case forecast...Invariably Remainers dredge up worst case forecasts and ignore best case forecasts. Every interviewer should look at these experts' previous forecasts and compare them with what actually happened. You'll probably find their forecasts were inaccurate and hence they fall into the Michael Gove category of experts who were wrong and therefore by definition not experts at all.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com