Newark: Post-match analysis

So how did the BBC report the result of the Newark by-election? Were they biased?

Plenty of people think so as you can see from the following small sample of opinion:

Getting fed up with all the #BBC right-wing bias. First praising UKIP now saying #Newark a disaster for Labour.
— Jenny Howarth (@Jenny_Musings) June 6, 2014

How many times has Farage been on telly yet today, to celebrate UKIP's glorious not winning a bye-election.....? #bbcbias
— Ade Couper (@bigade1665) June 6, 2014

@michelleconfess @darrenbjohn @natalieben Ex-MP - not ex-Tory. BBC bias against Greens unmistakable
— Louise Mensch (@LouiseMensch) June 6, 2014

UKIP KIPPERED?  By David Vance | June 6, 2014 | BBC bias  BBC seem to have enjoyed the Conservative win in the 44th safest Conservative seat in the UK. I caught a very hostile and patronising interview around 6.50am on the Today programme where the meme being flogged was that the UKIP bubble had burst! Honestly, the BBC is as biased against UKIP as rags like The Huffington Post. Little analysis of the WOEFUL Labour performance, of course, just a chuckle at the LibDems. UKIP cut the Conservative majority in half and yet, to the BBC, this is a tragic failure???

At the risk of sounding like an English Language teacher, or an examiner, it's time to lay out the source material - i.e. transcriptions of all the reports on Today on June 6th 2014 (the morning when the results were announced) plus all the questions put by the Today interviewer (Mishal Husain) to her two guests (Suzanne Evans and George Osborne) - and then let you judge if there's really any bias to be found here.

It's also quite interesting to see how the way a story is reported changes over the course of three hours. (That could form the basis of an English Language exam question too.) 

So was Today biased? And, if so, how?

You may turn your papers over now and begin. 

6.00 Opening Headlines

Mishal Husain: The Conservatives have won the Newark by-election but their majority at the last general election was substantially reduced by UKIP.

6.02 News bulletin

Newsreader: The Conservatives have  comfortably see off a challenge by UKIP in the Newark by-election but their majority at the last general election was more than halved. They won the Nottinghamshire seat with nearly 17,500 votes, a majority of 7,403. UKIP - a distant fifth in 2010 - came second, pushing Labour into third place. The Liberal Democrats finished sixth with just over 1,000 votes, behind the Greens and an independent candidate. The turnout was 52%. Our chief political correspondent, Gary O'Donaghue, was at the count.

Gary O'Donaghue: In 2010, the Conservatives had a 16,000 majority here over Labour. That's been slashed to a 7,000 majority over UKIP. Nigel Farage's party polled five times more votes than they did last time, beating Labour into third place and recording their sixth second place in a by-election in the past four years. Labour can hardly celebrate the fact that their share of the vote only dropped by almost 5 percentage points, but the Liberal Democrats have had a truly appalling night, taking just 2.5% and trailing in sixth.

6.37 Report from Gary O'Donaghue 

Mishal Husain: The result from the Newark by-election came in the last few years: A Conservative win, albeit with a reduced majority. UKIP came second, Labour third and the Liberal Democrats were right down in sixth place. Our political correspondent Gary O'Donaghue reports from Newark.

Gary O'Donaghue: At gone 3.30 in the morning the election officials clearly thought everyone needed waking up, so Eminem was pumped over the PA as warm-up for the result.

Returning Officer: I do hereby declare that the said Robert Edward Jenrick is duly elected from the Newark constituency.

Gary O'Donaghue: The Conservatives breathed a huge sigh of relief when their man got over the line with a 7,000 majority, down from 16,000 - higher than expected, thanks to a massive injection of activists and four visits from a prime minister. The Transport Secretary, Patrick McLoughlin, said it was the best result a governing party had had in a by-election in a long time.

Patrick McLoughlin, MP: I think a 7,000 majority is way beyond what we expected. Two weeks ago Nigel Farage was saying they were going to win in Newark. A few hours ago he said there was going to be a 2000 majority. A 7,000 majority in a by-election on a reduced turnout is a fantastic result.

Gary O'Donaghue: During the evening UKIP thought they were on track for their best ever by-election result, which would have meant being their 27.8% share in Eastleigh, but it wasn't to be, and Nigel Farage denied the momentum was falling away.

Nigel Farage: You've only ever done better once. The Eastleigh by-election produced a higher percentage than this and, yes, we'd have liked a few more pips on the result, but the truth of it is, you know, 85% of the people who turned out to vote for us in the European election have done so in a by-election.

Gary O'Donaghue: Labour's vote didn't collapse, as some thought it might, but they did still trail in third, their vote down by almost 5%. The Labour front bencher Chris Bryant said their vote had held up well.

Chris Bryant, MP: It's a completely different constituency from in 1997 when there was a large mining..former mining town in the constituency, so this is not prime territory for the Labour Party.

Gary O'Donaghue: It was another appalling night for the Liberal Democrats, losing their deposit yet again - the ninth time in this parliament - and coming sixth. Their candidate, David Watts, looked and sounded pretty grey.

David Watts: Well, what we have to do is get our message across more clearly. So much of what was in the Queen's Speech yesterday was Liberal Democrat policy and we're achieving an awful lot, but what we need to do is make sure people realise that that's what we're doing.

Gary O'Donaghue: Eminem's 'Lose Yourself' may just sum up how many of the candidates felt in the early hours, even if this wasn't the electoral earthquake many had predicted.

6.53 Interview with Suzanne Evans (UKIP)

Mishal Husain: UKIP's hopes of winning its first Westminster seat in the Newark by-election have been dashed. Its candidate, the MEP Roger Helmer, ended up coming second. Suzanne Evans, UKIP's community spokesperson is here. Good morning.

- So the earthquake didn't translate into a Westminster seat for you?

- You increased your share of the vote, but not to the level you would have liked. As recently as last night one of your colleagues was saying that 30% was the aim, and you ended up short of that.

- [interrupting] Well, it's not as if you didn't throw an awful lot of resource at it!

- Well, what does this mean then it terms of how you are going to capitalise on what you achieved in the European elections because this does show there's a way for you to go if you need to translate that onto the national stage. So what does it mean in the seats you fight and how you fight them because everyone knows what you are against. What you are for is rather harder to see.

- [interrupting] We know that part. We know that part. We've got that!

- But a lot of what you say you are for is simply the mirror image of what you say you're against, which is essentially Europe, and the negativity is a problem, isn't it? I just want to put to you some findings from YouGov who've done some polling where they asked the same questions about you, and other parties, and that they asked in May 2009, and what they have found is that, although your vote share is up, the number of people liking the party has actually fallen and when they ask the question, 'Do you generally feel positive or negative towards UKIP?', more people said that they feel negative towards UKIP.

- [interrupting] But what do you think of this one?  What do you think of this one, the idea of people feeling negative?

- But that is not the way to appeal to a large portion of the electorate than you are appealing to at the moment and that surely has to be the key to winning national seats?

- [interrupting] But we have to have them before we can ask you about them. Should Nigel Farage have run?

- [interrupting] Also an MEP, like Nigel Farage.

7.02 News bulletin

Newsreader: The Conservatives have won the Newark by-election but their majority at the last general election was more than halved by UKIP. Nigel Farage's party - a distant fifth in 2010 - pushed Labour into third place. The Liberal Democrats finished sixth with just over 1,000 votes, behind the Greens and an independent candidate. The turnout was 52%. The by-election in the Nottinghamshire seat was caused by the resignation of Patrick Mercer over a cash-for-questions scandal. Our chief political correspondent, Gary O'Donaghue, was at the declaration, which came just after 3.30 this morning.

Returning Officer: Jenrick, Robert Edward, the Conservative Party candidate, 17,431.

Gary O'Donaghue: There was great relief on the faces of Conservatives in Newark even though their majority had been slashed from 16,000 to 7,500. They'd pumped a huge number of activists into the seat and the Prime Minister had come here four times. The winning candidate, Robert Jenrick, who'd faced attacks over his privileged background, said the vote showed how little voters trusted Ed Miliband.

Robert Jenrick: It is clear from tonight's result that the people of Newark believe that Ed Miliband and the Labour Party have no answers for the challenges this country faces.

Gary O'Donaghue: Labour's vote fell by over 5 percentage points, which is worrying for them a year from the general election. They trailed in behind UKIP, who didn't quite make this their best-ever by-election, as they'd predicted. Nigel Farage acknowledged they'd lacked resources.

Nigel Farage: We've only ever done better once. The Eastleigh by-election produced a higher percentage than this and, yes, we'd have liked a few more pips on the result, but the truth of it is, you know, 85% of the people who turned out to vote for us in the European election have done so in a by-election.

Gary O'Donaghue: It was another truly awful night for the Liberal Democrats. Another lost deposit and their vote down by 17 percentage points. Their coalition partners will have had their nerves steadied however, but those questions about UKIP remaining a threat at the general election will be just that bit more real in the minds of the main party strategists.

7.49 Interview with George Osborne (Conservative)

Mishal Husain: The Conservatives have held Newark after a contest that was the first electoral test since the European and local elections. In 2010 the former Conservative MP Patrick Mercer had a 16,000 majority. His successor, Robert Jenrick has managed 7,500. The Conservatives threw a lot of resources at Newark and the Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, is here this morning. Good morning.

 - Hundreds of volunteers. David Cameron himself going up there about four times. He needed to hold it after all that effort didn't you?

- Not that strong some would say! You've ended up with your majority halved. It was 16,000. It's now 7,500.

- Yes, you're perhaps not surprising not mentioning how well UKIP did. I mean, their result...the showing they've had in coming second shows how they are eating into what were votes that went to you.

- [interrupting] I'm putting to you the amount that your majority has gone down. UKIP have come second and they've done very well at your expense.

    {The interview then moved onto other topics}.

8.02 News bulletin

Newsreader: The Conservatives have won the Newark by-election but their majority at the last general election was more than halved by UKIP. Nigel Farage's party - a distant fifth in 2010 - pushed Labour into third place. The Liberal Democrats finished sixth with just over 1,000 votes, behind the Greens and an independent candidate. The turnout was 52%. The by-election in the Nottinghamshire seat was caused by the resignation of Patrick Mercer over a cash-for-questions scandal. Our chief political correspondent, Gary O'Donaghue, was at the declaration.

Returning Officer: Jenrick, Robert Edward, the Conservative Party candidate, 17,431.

Gary O'Donaghue: There was great relief on the faces of Conservatives in Newark even though their majority had been slashed from 16,000 to 7,500. They'd pumped a huge number of activists into the seat and the Prime Minister had come here four times. The winning candidate, Robert Jenrick, who'd faced attacks over his privileged background, said the vote showed how little voters trusted Ed Miliband.

Robert Jenrick: It is clear from tonight's result that the people of Newark believe that Ed Miliband and the Labour Party have no answers for the challenges this country faces.

Gary O'Donaghue: Labour's vote fell by over 5 percentage points, which is worrying for them a year from the general election. They trailed in behind UKIP, who didn't quite make this their best-ever by-election, as they'd predicted. Nigel Farage acknowledged they'd lacked resources.

Nigel Farage: We've only ever done better once. The Eastleigh by-election produced a higher percentage than this and, yes, we'd have liked a few more pips on the result, but the truth of it is, you know, 85% of the people who turned out to vote for us in the European election have done so in a by-election.

Gary O'Donaghue: It was another truly awful night for the Liberal Democrats. Another lost deposit and their vote down by 17 percentage points. Their coalition partners will have had their nerves steadied however, but those questions about UKIP remaining a threat at the general election will be just that bit more real in the minds of the main party strategists.

Newsreader: The Prime Minister has described the Conservative victory as "very good" for his party but said the Tories had to work to win back voters from UKIP before the general election. The Chancellor, George Osborne, told us it was a "strong endorsement" of the government's economic plan.

George Osborne, MP: This is the first time in 25 years that the Conservative Party has held a by-election in government. This is a very strong result, and what is also striking is that it's a disastrous result for our principal opponents, the Labour Party.

Newsreader: The Labour MP Chris Bryant, who ran his party's campaign, said Newark was "not prime territory for Labour". The Liberal Democrat candidate, David Watts, said that many of his party's supporters had transferred their votes to other parties to prevent UKIP from winning.

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Time's up! Put your pens down please.

It's probably a bit late to tell you now, but you will be marked down for asserting bias where there is none.

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Conclusions: My own take is that the reporting was essentially fair to all concerned. I really can't see any justification for saying otherwise.

The news reports from Gary O'Donoghue gave both the Conservatives and UKIP their appropriate 'pluses' and 'minuses' from the vote in about as judiciously fair a way as it's possible to be. Both Labour's poorish night and the Lib Dems' terrible night were noted, as were both parties' respective spins on them. It wasn't unfair to the Greens, who came fifth, either - some way behind an independent, Paul Baggaley, who got a creditable 5% of the vote. (Maybe Mr Baggaley should have got a namecheck on Today. Wonder what he stood for and why he did so well?)

Mishal Husain's interview with UKIP's Suzanne Evans was a typical Mishal Husain interview. Her interview with George Osborne was just the same. She piles in and ploughs away like a terrier on a tractor.

I was determined to be as open-minded, dispassionate and thorough as possible here [in the founding spirit of Is the BBC biased?]. In that spirit I've found what I found. Did you find differently?