One of the top three headlines on the BBC News website this morning is Have UK voters changed their minds on Brexit?
It's a piece by Sir John Curtice and, reading it, the answer he gives is 'No, they haven't':
...very few voters on either side of the argument have changed their minds about whether the UK should leave the EU. The country appears to be just as divided as it was three years ago.
On average, during the last month, polls that ask people how they would vote in another referendum suggest that 88% of those who backed Remain would do so again. Among those who voted Leave, 86% have not changed their minds.
These figures have changed very little during the last two years.
True, most polls suggest - and have done so for some time - that the balance of opinion might be tilted narrowly in favour of remaining a member of the EU. On average, this is by 53% to 47%.
However, this lead for Remain rests primarily on the views expressed by those who did not vote three years ago - and perhaps might not do so again.
In truth, nobody can be sure what would happen if there were to be another referendum.
Very interestingly, the main question - 'Which of these scenarios do you favour the most? - results in the three 'Leave' options getting 46% and the 'Remain' option getting 34%.
Also intriguing is Sir John's finding that how you word the question in a poll really does influence the outcome (not that that's really a huge surprise):
Also intriguing is Sir John's finding that how you word the question in a poll really does influence the outcome (not that that's really a huge surprise):
When people are asked about a "public vote" they are more likely to show support for another ballot than when asked about a "referendum" on the UK's membership of the EU.
...which is why the BBC needs to be very careful about the language it uses - specially when it talks about a 'public/confirmatory vote' rather than 'another/a second referendum'.
It will be interesting to see how the BBC itself covers (or spins) these findings.
