Sunday 3 December 2017

17.2%?


This morning's Sunday on Radio 4 discussed the Pew Research Center's projections for the Muslim population in Europe in 2050:



Conrad Hackett, from the Pew Research Center, talked about it first and then Edward Stourton discussed it with Sheikh Ibraham Mogra from the Muslim Council of Britain and Katie Harrison, Director of the Faith Research Centre at ComRes.

The message I heard from the programme is that it will all turn out well, especially if we stop invading and occupying Muslims countries! Plus, such research is useful if it's used properly and doesn't get misused by 'the far-right'. 

22 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  2. I will try again as format of deleted post was poor.

    2001 UK Muslim population = 1,600,000 (Census)
    2011 UK Muslim population = 2,706,000 (Census)
    2016 UK Muslim population = 4,135,000 (Pew figure 6.3%) assuming UK Population = 65.64m.

    Increase 2001-2011 (10yrs) = 1,106,000
    Increase 2011-2016 (5yrs) = 1,429,000
    2021 Muslim population projection increase 2,848,000.
    Muslim population doubling every 10yrs 'if' Pew 6.4% current Muslim percentage estimate is correct.
    I have to be wrong surely?
    Excuse = tired, I've had a long day with my 4 granddaughters!!

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    1. It's been doubling at that rate for some time. There seems to be an assumption it can't carry on doubling at that rate. But that assumption seems based on nothing. At some point that doubling population is going to impact on the migration policy of the country, i.e. there will be pressure to relax controls,rather than make them stricter. It has always been my view that at that point, we may see an increased outflow from the UK of concerned citizens. That's how by 2050 the figure could be closer to 30% rather than 17.2%. By that point it really is game over and the UK would be an Islamic country within another 20 years.

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  3. I read through this PEW Research Center report and found this some way down:

    .... The UK voted in a 2016 referendum to leave the EU, which may impact immigration patterns in the future, but it is still counted as part of Europe in this report....

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    1. Here's the link to the report:

      http://www.pewforum.org/2017/11/29/europes-growing-muslim-population/

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  4. I am always suspicious of population and immigration studies that treat the whole of the UK as one homogeneous place. As in the maps above, where the whole UK is a medium green 17.2%.

    It won't be like that at all. No, there will be areas which, just like now, will be almost 100% Muslim; however a lot more of them (seems like 3 times more). Great disruption for you and your family if you happen to be living in those areas now.

    Other points that jump out:
    - 17.2% is a misleading accuracy for something 32 years ahead. I'd like to see it expressed as 17% plus or minus x%
    - And why stop at 2050 ... ? Seems a long way off ? Not really, I plan to see it. And what would clearly scare the pants off of all of us would be to see the projections for 2100 to see what kind of society our Governments and their propaganda mouthpieces in the BBC are preparing for our children and grandchildren.

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    1. Yes Ozfan, that's a very important point. If major cities like Birmingham and London become Muslim majority or majoritarian that has a significant impact across the country,in terms of the nation's self-image and (particularly with respect to the capital) control of the nation's key infrastructure*. Most migration is taking place into England and then only in about half the land area of England.

      Yes, why stop at 2050. They don't stop at 2050 with climate change predictions do they?

      And as I wrote above, the percentage projections don#t allow for accelerated outflow of concerned citizens who don't want to end up ruled by Sharia law. As we have seen in places like Algeria, South Africa and Uganda, very large population transfers can take place in a few weeks or months. Given we have annual outflows of around 300k already, and increase to 500K and then 1 million are not out of the question.

      * Does that sound paranoid? Well remember Lord Ahmed threatened to get 10,000 protestors on the street to prevent Geert Wilders attending Parliament to speak at a meeting there. The meeting was called off. That is the sort of physical control I am talking about.

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    2. Therein lies the problem when the world is lead to believe via the BBC, that London is the UK and the UK is London. If the London demographic is unrepresentative of the rest of the UK, then there is a danger that the the London-based executive will try to match the whole of the UK to their own London model. We are seeing a glimpse of the future here with determined efforts to derail Brexit and thwart the expectations of the majority of UK voters.

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  5. For anything to happen at all would require an acceptance by a substantial group of mainstream politicians that Islam is a political system rather than a religion like all other forms of religion. But I am afraid that argument will be shut down before it even gets off the ground. But the BBC and the Westminster bubble (whatever that actually means) are just part of a greater whole. For a start we would have to start educating young people about their own culture, rather than just indoctrinating them with self-destructive anti-Western propaganda. I’m not hopeful.

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    1. This is one reason why I would recommend in public discourse it is best not to refer to Islam, but Sharia. The ECHR have already declared Sharia to be incompatible with human rights. The nature of Sharia is evident from legal practice in places like Saudi Arabia and Iran. Sharia discriminates against women and gays. This makes it all the easier to explain to the public and also to avoid the unjust accusation of racism. Our politicians need to say, if people wish to follow Islam as a private religion, that is their free choice - but they cannot seek to install Sharia as a parallel legal system in the UK or as a future legal system for the UK.

      I'm not particularly hopeful. I think we may be the first country in the world to commit a kind of national suicide...it's probably a race to the finish between us and Sweden. Most Brits I believe will probably not wish to resist (will have been educated not to resist) and will choose flight to Australia, New Zealand, India, Canada and the USA. At least no one then will be able to deny the astonishing fact of what took place, and that may be a lesson for other countries.

      However, on the other hand the people of these islands have displayed great flexibility over the years in navigating the historical waters, through many stormy passages. Perhaps they will rediscover their culture and their pride.

      A determined smallish party may yet be able to turn the tide if it can gain enough seats in Parliament. That is the tricky part but it is not impossible. 10, 20, 30, 50 seats will begin to change the national mood.

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    2. MB. It's coming for sure. Extrapolating the Pew figures for 2016 and 2050, it's very easy to arrive at over 50% Muslim by 2100. Sadly, but realistically, I'm already advising my young relatives to look elsewhere.

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    3. My children have the opportunity of obtaining another passport in addition to their UK one. I am advising them to do so. Now, everyone will need a bolthole.

      Still, one prays for a miracle. It's not all one way. As much as the internet has put rocket boosters on Jihad, it is also undermining the belief system.

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    4. What is tragic is that our natural tolerance as a modern liberal democracy has made us so vulnerable. Not just to the threat of Sharia, but to a viciously intolerant form of identity politics from within our own society. Either way we could be walking blindly into totalitarianism.

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    5. Can anyone tell me how unrestricted immigration, intolerance to free speech, the gradual loss of Christian values and the hostile and partisan nature of political debate is creating a better society? bBBC is at the vanguard of these seismic changes across its output by the way it cleverly and selectively reports. Within the first few sentences It is always very clear who is in the dock and whose side the bBBC is on.

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    6. I doubt anyone can tell you here! lol Most people here don't believe the pro-mass migration propaganda. What has it delivered? The risk of mass casualty terrorism. A housing crisis. Huge pressure on the health service. Growing class sizes. Cattle truck public transport. An underperforming low productivity economy. No growth in real wages for most people. Now robotics is going to wipe out the millions of low skilled jobs in the UK that migrants have taken on...the cost of mass immigration is going to rise to astronomical as a result...

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  6. Yes, I know that most people on here don’t buy it. But are we just in an echo chamber on this board? Like minded people moaning about the injustices and bias of the BBC. Are we any different to the liberal elite at the BBC or The Guardian? It’s just our perspective that is different. In many ways we are just like them, preaching to the converted in our little bubble.
    Of course where the BBC differs and creates the danger is that they don’t just preach to fellow employees and colleagues with their left liberal groupthink. They broadcast their propaganda to the world via their media channels

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    1. I am sure most people here seek out alternative sources of news...there is a broad movement opposing the twin pincers of PC multiculturalism and Sharia. I hope we may see an alternative to the BBC emerge eventually, maybe through an alliance of alternative media channels. Producing fact-based news is not so difficult...but producing quality entertainment is much bigger ask.

      What do you feel needs to be done.

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    2. Hmmmm. No, this 'board' is not an echo chamber.
      It is run by two people who regularly give credit where credit is due, and criticise fairly when necessary. It has its leanings, but who doesn't ? I'm not worried at all. The more open conversation which I experience here is why I keep coming back. That and the ale.

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    3. The ale's very good. It's free as well. And you can drink as much as you like.

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  7. The writings of Craig and Sue are very balanced. I was just posing a question on the ‘below the line’ comments in the spirit of open conversation.

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    1. I posted about 10,000 comments before and during the EU Referendum campaign on the Mail Online and Guardian sites (when it was easier to do so - even the Mail is restricting comments more and more now). I didn't mind posting combatively dealing with the Remain fear campaign point by point, rubbishing the Fake opinion polls putting Remain 10 or even 15 points ahead (all forgotten now!), encouraging Leavers to keep steady... I wasn't looking for an echo chamber.

      I think what is really needed now are:

      (a) A non-racist political party prepared to taken on PC multiculturalism and the left-liberal elite. UKIP was a one issue party and Henry Bolton - advisor to EU, Lib Dem candidate, OBE etc - is not the man to take it anywhere else. I am hoping For Britain can become a credible alternative. Not my choice of name...but Anne Marie Waters at least has that determination not to be diverted from telling the truth.

      (b) A major independent media hub for those opposed to PC multiculturalism, mass immigration, globalism, left fascism and who are pro-free speech, pro-democracy, pro-real economic progress. This media hub might combine a newsfeed from something like Reuters and add in Breitbart, Rebel Media, Jihad Watch. It might be supportive of For Britain and any Islamosceptic MPs (not many around at the moment). With crowd funding, the media hub could host studio news and weather and studio discussions. Entertainment might be more of a challenge.

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  8. Further to my above comment, this very recent interview with Anne Marie Waters by Simon Harris is encouraging I think:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79kyZvRBhIE

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